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12月25号是苏联解体20周年纪念日，俄罗斯民众24号举行大规模抗议示威，要求实现真正的民主选举。而中共党报《人民日报》发表长篇文章谈苏联解体20年，一方面反西方、为中共体制辩护，另一方面也承认苏联解体是因为没有实施真正的改革。但学者表示，共产党本身就是中国政治体制改革的根本障碍，只有结束共产党一党专政，中国才能真正转型。1991年8月19号，苏联共产党保守派发动政变，软禁了当时的苏联总统戈尔巴乔夫。但是，在人民、军队和大多数苏共党员的反对下，政变仅仅维持3天就宣告失败。
随后俄罗斯总统叶利钦宣布苏共为非法组织，戈尔巴乔夫宣布苏共自动解散并辞去总书记职务，拥有2000万党员的苏共随即解体。12月25号，戈尔巴乔夫将国家权力移交给俄罗斯总统，苏联正式解体。
今年12月24号，俄罗斯一百多个城市再次爆发抗议示威，首都莫斯科有12万人参加，戈尔巴乔夫等各界名人纷纷呼吁连任三届的普京下台。美国CNN报导说，抗议让人联想到20年前的苏联解体。
就在苏联解体20周年之际，中共《人民日报》26号发表题为〝主动把握历史的未来〞的文章，声称〝苏联解体是20世纪最具震撼力的事件之一〞，〝共产主义失败了〞，成为西方乃至世界的主导思维。
中国民主党创办人之一秦永敏表示，今天的中共已经没有人信仰共产主义了。
秦永敏：〝苏共它有一个顽强的意识形态，它的意识形态的失败也就是它这个制度的终结。中共没有一个意识形态，它的意识形态是毛泽东思想还是邓小平理论呢？是要搞共产主义还是要搞资本主义呢？今天的中共已经没有任何意识形态了，它剩下的就是利益问题。〞
中共党报文章说，社会主义阵营〝老大哥〞消失，西亚、北非地区陷入动荡。尽管两件事相隔20年，但是人们探寻〝传导效应〞，最终指向都是中国的社会主义制度。
秦永敏：〝从中国来说，我们主张的是和平转型，那么转型的和平程度如何，很大程度上确实取决于当局是否能够‘放下屠刀、立地成佛’。它的意识形态上已经没有了，它已经扬弃了共产主义那一套了，但是要搞什么，它也说不清楚，那就是维持现状。你这个制度本身已经处于崩溃状况，你还要维持现状，这也不搞、那也不搞，那不是坐以待毙吗？〞
党报文章也认为，苏联解体的一个重要原因，就是长期以来没有实施真正意义上的改革，虽然有过一些修修补补，最后还是走进了死胡同。
文章承认，中国现有体制难以满足民众日益增长的诉求，新旧体制转型成为趋势。美国乔治梅森大学教授章天亮表示，共产党本身就是中国政治体制改革的根本障碍。
章天亮：〝中国各地风起云涌的抗暴潮，之所以还没有对中共统治造成根本性的动摇，就是因为这些人他们的抗争，他们是以经济利益作为唯一的诉求，不触及到共产党统治的本质。必须得在民众普遍觉醒，把结束共产党一党专政作为一个主题的思想提出来，这个时候共产党才可能解体。〞
外界评论指出，〝苏联的昨天〞就是中国的今天和明天，中共领导层应抓紧历史机遇，主动进行根本性的政治体制改革。而《九评共产党》引发的退党大潮，正在使全民走向精神觉醒，最终将促成中国和平转型。
新唐人记者朱智善、李元翰、柏妮采访报导。
Soviet’s Dissolution Forecasts CCP’s Transformation
Dec. 25 celebrates 20th anniversary of Soviet Union’s collapse.
On 24th, Russian people called for true democratic elections,
with large-scale demonstrations.
CCP’s mouthpiece People's Daily published a long article.
Admitting Soviet Union’s failure is due to a lack of reform.
Yet CCP proclaims active transformation is in a
stable development.
Scholar says that CCP itself is the obstacle to China's political reform,
so the real reform can be only happened with the termination of the Communist’s Regime.
Aug. 19, 1991, conservative Communists in Soviet house
arrested President Mikhail Gorbachev.
Under pressure from the people and army, the riot lasted only
three days.
Afterwards, Russian President Boris Yeltsin announced Soviet
Communist Party illegal.
Gorbachev announced dismissing the Party and resigned from
the Party’s Secretary General.
Soviet Communist Party with 20 million members
thus collapsed.
Dec. 25, Gorbachev handed over power to Russian President,
the Soviet Union formally dissolved.
Dec. 24, protests broke out in over 100 Russian cities,
with over 120,000 people participating in Moscow.
Gorbachev and other celebrities called for Putin to step down.
CNN says protests remind people of Soviet Union’s dissolution.
Dec. 26, CCP’s mouthpiece People’s Daily published an article,
“Seize the Future of History Actively.”
The article claimed that Soviet’s dissolution was one of the most
shocking incidents in 20th century.
“The fall of communism prevailed in the West,
even within the whole world.”
Qin Yongmin, co-founder of China’s Democratic Party said,
“Today, Chinese people no longer believe in communism.
Soviet Communist Party had a tenacious ideology,
whose failure ended Soviet’s political system.
Communist China does not have such an ideology.
Should it be Maoism or Deng’s theory, or something else?
Should China follow communist or capitalist path?
Today’s CCP has no ideology, only pursuit of private interests”.
CCP’s mouthpiece article said, "Big Brother" of socialist camp
has disappeared; West Asia, North Africa are now in turmoil.
Although 20 years apart, both incidents have "transfer effects",
pointing towards China's socialist system.
Qin Yongmin stated: “We advocate a peaceful transition.
How peaceful it will be depends on whether CCP ‘abandons arms and turns to virtues’.
CCP has discarded its Communist ideology,
but cannot tell which is the best road to follow.
At a time of crisis, it can do nothing but maintain the status quo.
Does it not equal waiting for death?
CCP’s articles also say that Soviet’s dissolution results from a
lack of real reform. All its attempts lead to dead ends.
The Article acknowledged that China's current system fails to
meet the growing demands of the people. Institutional transformation becomes a trend.
Zhang Tianliang, professor at George Mason University said,
“CCP itself is the obstacle to China's political reform”.
Zhang Tianliang quoted, “Current anti-CCP storms in all parts
of China have not shaken CCP’s base, since these people are fighting for economic benefits.
Only when the public awakens and challenges CCP’s dictatorship
can there be CCP’s disintegration”.
Public critics said Soviet’s past is today’s China and its future.
CCP should seize the historical opportunity to initiate
fundamental political reform.
The quit-CCP movement triggered by "Nine Commentaries on
the Communist Party" will lead to Chinese people’s spiritual awakening and ultimately China's peaceful transformation.
NTD reporters Zhu Zhishan and Li Yuanhan
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